000
WTNT44 KNHC 271458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Harvey continues to meander over southeastern Texas, where it
is producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding rainfall.
NWS radars show that bands of deep convection continue to develop
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and train over portions of
southeastern Texas, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area.  Rainfall amounts greater than 20-25 inches have already been
reported and flash flood emergencies and warnings have been issued
by local National Weather Service offices for a large portion of
southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches
are expected over the next several days, and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center is now forecasting isolated storm total amounts of
50 inches.  These historic rainfall amounts will exacerbate the
already dire and life-threatening situation.

Surface observations of winds 30-35 kt within a band of convection
over the western Gulf of Mexico and along the coast of Texas support
an initial intensity of 35 kt.  The latest track guidance show
Harvey moving slowly southeastward for the next 24 to 36 hours and
the center is likely to move very close to the coast, or even
offshore, between 24-48 hours.  After that time, Harvey is expected
to begin a northward motion which should take it inland over eastern
Texas later in the period.  Since a large portion of the circulation
is expected to remain over water during the next several days,
Harvey is maintained as a tropical storm through 72 hours.  However,
the strongest winds are likely to occur over the Gulf waters.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50
inches, through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials.
Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not
drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 29.0N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 28.6N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1200Z 28.4N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z 28.2N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  29/1200Z 28.2N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  30/1200Z 29.3N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/1200Z 30.9N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1200Z 32.2N  95.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown