000
WTNT44 KNHC 020252
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

Recent satellite images suggest that the structure of Matthew has
changed little, and the winds are still estimated at 130 kt. The
hurricane should experience some weakening during the next couple of
days, but Matthew is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane until
it interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba in
about 48 hours or so. Once Matthew reaches the Bahamas, the
upper-level environment and warm waters will favor some
restrengthening. In the mean time, some short-term fluctuations in
intensity are possible due to internal dynamics, including eyewall
replacement cycles, that are not included here. A better estimate
of the intensity can be obtained when the next Air Force plane
reaches Matthew at about 1130 UTC Sunday.

A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the
eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the
hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6
kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and the motion of the
hurricane for the next 2 to 3 days remains controlled by a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-level
trough in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. This flow pattern will steer Matthew toward the
north-northwest and north toward western Haiti, eastern Cuba,
and Jamaica during the next day or so. This portion of the NHC
forecast track was shifted eastward following the trend of the
overall guidance, primarily the multi-model consensus. Beyond 72
hours, given the large spread of the guidance, the confidence in the
track is low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 13.8N  73.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 14.2N  73.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 15.3N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.7N  74.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 18.3N  74.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  74.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 27.5N  75.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila