000
WTNT44 KNHC 190835
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Nine is
becoming less organized due to the ongoing 30-35 kt southwesterly
shear.  The convection is weaker in both coverage and intensity than
it was 24 hours ago, and the low-level circulation is losing
definition.  The shear is expected to continue for at least the next
48 hours, and based on this the depression is expected to degenerate
to a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less.

The initial motion is 290/10.  The low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge north of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward
the west-northwest until the system dissipates completely in a
couple of days.  The new forecast track is an update of the
previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 18.5N  49.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.9N  50.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.5N  52.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1800Z 20.1N  53.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z 20.9N  55.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven