000
WTNT44 KNHC 182032
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

Deep convection has redeveloped north of the center of the
depression this afternoon, buying the system some more time as a
tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the
latest Dvorak estimates. Given the unfavorable environment of shear
and dry air, the system is still expected to become a remnant low in
12 to 24 hours. After that time, the weakening low is expected to
open up into a trough as shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

The motion of the low-level center has been a little erratic during
the past few hours, but a long-term average yields a motion of
300/05. A general west-northwestward motion driven by the
low-level ridge to the north is forecast until dissipation, in
agreement with the GFS model. The new NHC track is similar to the
previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 18.0N  47.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 18.4N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 19.0N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 19.6N  51.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z 20.2N  53.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan