000
WTNT44 KNHC 181433
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

After the burst of convection overnight, shear and dry air appear
to be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection
remaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not
return, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight.
Weakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low
gradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Visible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward
the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/7. The
initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the
NHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree. The NHC forecast
shows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward
through dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the
north. The official forecast continues to favor the weaker models,
such as the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean, on the left side of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.7N  47.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.2N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1200Z 18.9N  49.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 19.6N  51.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z 20.4N  52.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z 21.5N  55.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan