000
WTNT44 KNHC 180842
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

A burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -70C has
developed near and northeast of the center of Tropical Depression
Nine.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 25 kt,
and that will be the initial intensity.  The depression continues
to be in an environment of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
being advected into the system.  The dynamical models suggest these
conditions should persist for at least 48 hours, and based on this
the depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure
area in 24 hours or less.

The initial motion remains 330/6.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the depression is expected to steer it or its remnants
generally northwestward for the next several days.  The new forecast
track is similar to the previous track, with a little nudge toward
the south during the first 48 hours due to the initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 17.6N  45.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 18.3N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 19.2N  48.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1800Z 19.9N  49.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 20.7N  51.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 22.5N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z 24.0N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven