000
WTNT44 KNHC 180233
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015

The depression consists of a circulation of low clouds with a very
small patch of deep convection to the north of the center. Based on
continuity and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is kept
at 25 kt. Given that 20 to 25 kt of shear and dry air are expected
to continue in the vicinity of the depression, weakening is
forecast, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in
about 12 hours or so.

Satellite fixes show a motion toward the north-northwest or 330
degrees at 6 kt. The depression has become a shallow cyclone,
and the subtropical high is forecast to rebuild to the north.
Consequently, the depression or the remnant low is forecast to turn
toward the northwest and then west-northwest. This turn to the left
is the solution provided by most of the track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 17.3N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 18.0N  45.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 19.7N  48.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 20.5N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z 22.0N  53.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z 23.0N  55.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila