000
WTNT44 KNHC 170233
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015

The depression continues to be sheared with the low-level center
well removed from the deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all
agencies have decreased tonight, but still support an initial
intensity of 25 kt. Most of the global models bring even stronger
upper-level westerly winds over the cyclone, and this should result
in weakening.  The depression could still produce intermittent
bursts of convection near the center during the next day or so, but
the overall trend is for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low in
two days or earlier.

The low-level center is difficult to locate on infrared images. The
best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 6 kt, while embedded within light steering currents.
Since the depression is becoming a shallow cyclone, it will likely
be steered toward the northwest and then west-northwest by the
low-level flow around the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous one, and is on the southern edge of the
guidance envelope, leaning toward BAM shallow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 15.8N  45.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 16.6N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.6N  45.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 18.8N  46.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 19.8N  47.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z 21.0N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z 22.0N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila