000
WTNT44 KNHC 210231
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF
MELISSA... THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER
TODAY.  THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING
THE WINDS AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF MELISSA FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER RATHER COLD WATERS. 
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DIVERGENT AND
COLD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW SHEAR.  NONETHELESS...
IT IS HARD TO SEE MELISSA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS SUB-18C WATERS.  EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN 36H OR SO AS MELISSA ENCOUNTERS A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
MELISSA IS ZIPPING ALONG TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE TRACK SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH OF
A CUTOFF LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
 
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AZORES LATE TOMORROW AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 38.1N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 39.6N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 41.2N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/1200Z 42.4N  25.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0000Z 42.8N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z 41.0N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE