000
WTNT44 KNHC 202036
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS
WRAPPED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
EARLIER TODAY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...AND ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A LITTLE
SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERIES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...
MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.
 
MELISA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060 DEGREES AT
26 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. SINCE THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
MUCH...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR
SOONER. THE NHC FOREAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 37.2N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 39.0N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 41.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/0600Z 42.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  22/1800Z 43.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z 42.0N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA