000
WTNT44 KNHC 132041
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN
THE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED
A BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS.  AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR 
HUMBERTO.  THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS
KEPT THE SAME AT THE END.  

THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10. 
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 
THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO
RECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER
TRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 25.0N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 25.4N  33.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 26.3N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 27.3N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 28.2N  40.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 30.4N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 32.5N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 36.0N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE