000
WTNT44 KNHC 112040
TCDAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON IN BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE
EYE...ALTHOUGH RAGGED AND INTERMITTENT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON
THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75
KNOTS. HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY.
AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
 
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR
350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
HUMBERTO TO MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNANIMOUSLY
SHOWN BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 18.0N  29.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 19.5N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 21.3N  29.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 22.8N  30.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 24.0N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 24.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 25.5N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 27.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA