000
WTNT44 KNHC 102031
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
 
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
HAS BEEN EXPANDING WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT.  THE MAIN
IMMEDIATE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO THAT MAY
BE GETTING INTO THE INNER CORE...BUT OTHERWISE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
AND WARM WATERS FAVOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...HUMBERTO WILL BE STRADDLING THE 26C
SST ISOTHERM...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 2.  THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ON A PEAK INTENSITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 KT...WITH THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

HUMBERTO HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/7
KT.  THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS NOW WEAKENING...AND THE
EVOLVING PATTERN WILL ALLOW HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS. 
THEN...JUST AS SHARPLY AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD...
IT WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD BY DAY 5 WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 15.0N  28.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 15.9N  28.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 17.6N  29.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 19.6N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 21.5N  29.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 24.0N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 24.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 24.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG