000
WTNT44 KNHC 092040
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
HUMBERTO IS SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS 47 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT.

HUMBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST...AND
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING HUMBERTO TO
TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ANOTHER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AZORES AND
FORCE HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5.  THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL
EASTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

HUMBERTO CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND...AND CONDITIONS
FAVOR THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
CYCLES...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING THE MOST
STRENGTHENING AND THE HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BARELY BRINGING
HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
THEREFORE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A PEAK
IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS BEFORE HUMBERTO
REACHES COLDER WATER AND CONTENDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR.

HUMBERTO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
THEREFORE...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 13.7N  25.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 14.1N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 14.8N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 16.1N  28.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 18.2N  29.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 22.5N  30.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 25.5N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 26.5N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG