000
WTNT44 KNHC 271457
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013

DORIAN HAS A VERY DISORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DRY
AIR MASS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DORIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
SYSTEM SOON.  GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  ALTERNATIVELY...SINCE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED...
DORIAN COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AT ANY TIME.
 
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD...OR 280/20.  THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.  A
MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAK WIND
FIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE NOT NEEDED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 18.5N  52.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 18.9N  55.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 19.5N  59.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 20.2N  63.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 20.7N  66.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 21.5N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH