000
WTNT44 KNHC 262032
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013
 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS
BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY
CLOSED AT THIS TIME.  USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD
DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.
 
THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 17.8N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 18.2N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 18.6N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 19.0N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 19.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 20.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 20.5N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH