000
WTNT44 KNHC 251434
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LAST
NIGHT.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION  DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE
TYPICAL BAROCLINIC LEAF...SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
NEARLY COMPLETE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED UPON A
BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
AND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/20. EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
OF WESTERLY FLOW...TONY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 31.0N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 31.6N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 32.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 33.2N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN