000
WTNT44 KNHC 250236
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012
 
AFTER BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF TONY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE
IS MAINTAINING SOME INNER-CORE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  A COLD FRONT IS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THIS MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WHICH IS CAUSING THE FRONT TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. 
WHILE A COMBINATION OF STRONG  SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD
NORMALLY WEAKEN TONY PRETTY QUICKLY...THE UPPER-ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO COOL QUITE A BIT...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MAINTENANCE
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE
QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...I DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRANSITION TIMING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...070/20. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STORM
KEEPING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A SLIGHT DECELERATION AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  A
DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD THEN TURN TONY TO THE
NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36H...THEN IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BY 72H AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING MORE OF A POLEWARD MOTION BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITHIN THE
VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 30.1N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 31.1N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/0000Z 32.3N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/1200Z 33.5N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/0000Z 34.5N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/0000Z 37.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE