000
WTNT44 KNHC 240244
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING
FEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM TONY.
 
TONY ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO LEVEL OFF IN
INTENSITY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
N MI NORTHWEST OF TONY IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT OR MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS THEREFORE
SHOWN AT 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY
DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING
TONY TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE MORE ZONAL
FLOW. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST IN A FEW DAYS AS THE
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF
WIND WAVES GENERATED BY TONY INTERACTING WITH SWELL FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 26.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 27.7N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 28.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 29.9N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 31.1N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0000Z 35.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI