000
WTNT44 KNHC 232031
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012
 
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE
DEPRESSION.  CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ARE PEEKING OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
HAS ALSO LOST SOME OF ITS CURVATURE AND IS A LITTLE MORE LINEAR.
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE STILL T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ABOVE 30 KT IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE AND SHEAR DIRECTION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING.  EVEN STILL...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
WELL BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BEYOND 12 HOURS AND INDICATES A PEAK
OF 40 KT IN A DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATER.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A FRONT LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST...AND IT COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY
A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE AZORES BY DAY 5.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING
STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...HAVE TRENDED
A LITTLE FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
THEREFORE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY DAY 4 WHEN IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE
AZORES.
 
THE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF
WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 26.3N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 27.4N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 28.8N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 29.8N  42.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 30.7N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  26/1800Z 33.5N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/1800Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG