000
WTNT44 KNHC 022037
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  81
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
 
NADINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD TOPS
WARMING AND BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED.  DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO
50 KT.  AS NADINE BEGINS TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND FINALLY
LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
THE STORM HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/6 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT 
IS STEERED AROUND A LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 34.4N  36.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 34.9N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 36.0N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 39.0N  29.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 43.2N  26.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN