000
WTNT44 KNHC 010834
TCDAT4
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012
 
NADINE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND A RATHER THIN BAND OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS ONLY WRAPS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT
LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 65 KT...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE
GENEROUS. NADINE HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS...WHERE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22C ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS.
THESE COOL WATERS ARE AT LEAST IN PART CAUSED BY NADINE ITSELF THAT
WAS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ABOUT A DAY
AGO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 4...WHEN IT IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS BELOW 20C AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF
ABOUT 40 KT.
 
THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...STEERED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NADINE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT
IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 36.3N  39.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 35.6N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 35.1N  38.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 34.9N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 35.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 38.5N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 46.0N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  06/0600Z 50.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI