000
WTNT44 KNHC 162036
TCDAT4
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER HAS A
TILTED EYE. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO
65 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/20 KT. NADINE IS ON TRACK
AND...THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
NADINE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...A SLOW TURN TO THE
EAST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA...AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.
 
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL 
TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE LATTER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STRONG NORTHEAST ATLANTIC LOW. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 30.8N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 31.5N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 32.6N  34.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 33.8N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 34.9N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 36.9N  31.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR AZORES
120H  21/1800Z 37.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR AZORES
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART