000
WTNT44 KNHC 152037
TCDAT4
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012
 
NADINE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE MORE
DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT
FROM SAB...AND A 70-KT ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.

NADINE HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/14 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF NADINE...AND THE HURRICANE MAY RESPOND IN
THE SHORT TERM BY MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST. HOWEVER...A
GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE
NADINE MOVES TOWARDS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
AZORES. THIS COMPLEX LOW IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE AZORES IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE ANOTHER LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES
WILL CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE FASTER MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING
NADINE COULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FLATLINES THE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 48
HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS THE SHEAR
CONTINUES AND NADINE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN 26C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND JUST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 30.8N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 30.7N  45.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 30.7N  41.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 31.3N  38.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 32.4N  35.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 35.0N  32.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 37.0N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 38.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG