000
WTNT44 KNHC 151449
TCDAT4
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012
 
ALTHOUGH NADINE IS STILL A TILTED HURRICANE...THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED DEEP
CONVECTION NEARLY SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT.

NADINE IS QUICKLY RECURVING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
070/13 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS ENTERING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES...
AND NADINE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 3 WITH ANOTHER
DEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 
THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE SHOWING A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED WHILE NADINE IS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AND
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  THE FORECASTS ARE VERY
SIMILAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE NEW ONE LYING BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS SUCH THAT
IT SHOULD TEMPER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THEREFORE...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS NADINE AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.  COLDER WATER SHOULD ULTIMATELY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 30.9N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 31.0N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.9N  44.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 31.0N  40.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 31.7N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 34.0N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 36.5N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 37.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG