000
WTNT44 KNHC 250838
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
 
DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
 
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 28.6N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 28.8N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 28.9N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 29.0N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 29.2N  85.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 29.4N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 29.7N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/0600Z 30.2N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH