000
WTNT44 KNHC 152045
TCDAT4
 
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED.  AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON
BERMUDA RADAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
 
MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING
ABOUT 31 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MOVE 45 KT OR FASTER ON FRIDAY AS IT GET CAUGHT IN VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE
MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE AND THE WATER IS WARM.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER
WATERS.   HOWEVER...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW...DUE IN PART TO THE EXPECTED VERY
FAST FORWARD MOTION.  THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
 
THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  IF THERE IS A FURTHER
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OR MARIA BECOMES STRONGER...A
HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 35.2N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 39.6N  61.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 46.7N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 54.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN