000
WTNT44 KNHC 141445
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF
EARLIER ESTIMATES.  WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...
WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.  ABOUT
HALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE.  GIVEN THAT
THIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS
BEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. 
THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS
CAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
THE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AFTER THAT TIME.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD
WATERS.  ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 25.2N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 27.6N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 31.6N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 36.5N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 42.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE