000
WTNT44 KNHC 100845
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
 
MARIA LOOKS DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF NEAR 43
KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE ALLEDGED CENTER ON ITS WAY TO THE
BASE. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE GUADELOUPE RADAR STILL SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION. I AM NOT
READY TO WRITE THIS ONE OFF YET AND MARIA IS KEPT AS A 40-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE STATUS OF MARIA...I PROPOSE NOT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
 
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN
THE MORNING WILL HELP US TO DETERMINE IF MARIA IS STILL A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR NOT.  EVEN IF THE PLANE FINDS AN OPEN TROUGH...THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS REGENERATION AND STRENGHTENING.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENISTY GUIDANCE. IN FACT...EVEN THE
HWRF HAS BECOME MORE AGRESSIVE MAKING MARIA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2
TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH MARIA.
 
BECAUSE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL IN A DAY...SO A TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE
REAL CHALLENGE HERE IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 16.0N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 17.0N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 18.5N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 21.5N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 23.5N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 27.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 34.0N  68.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA