000
WTNT44 KNHC 082051
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE.  MARIA CONSISTS OF A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...MARIA PERHAPS NO LONGER HAS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE CYCLONE TO DETERMINE IF THAT IS THE CASE. NOAA BUOY
41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND
THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO MARIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE FACT THAT THE LGEM...ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS
DO NOT STRENGTHEN MARIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING.  THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT
SHOW ANY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE
ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO QUICKLY ISSUE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS...IF NECESSARY.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING. MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...AS
THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT
THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 13.2N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 13.4N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 14.0N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 15.5N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 17.0N  63.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 20.0N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 23.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 25.5N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA