000 WTNT44 KNHC 072040 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS APPARENTLY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT NOT REALLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZED RAINBANDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING DISRUPTED DUE A DEVELOPING WIND SHEAR AS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE SHEAR IS INCREASING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED SUPPORT KEEPING MARIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH FIVE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING NOAA BUOY 41041...SO WE WILL LIKELY KNOW MORE ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF MARIA LATER TONIGHT. THE AVERAGE MOTION HAS BEEN TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FORECASTING MARIA TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A RAPID PACE. THEREAFTER...IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO OBSERVED DURING THE TWO OR THREE PREVIOUS RECURVING CYCLONES THIS SEASON. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND HWRF TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AND THE ECMWF AND UK PROLONGING THE EVENTUAL NORTHWARD TURN A LITTLE LONGER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS...AS USUAL...A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.2N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.6N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 14.5N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.0N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.5N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA