000
WTNT44 KNHC 282036
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER.  THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER...THAT THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE THE LAST.  AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
RESTRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 020/23.  IRENE OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  AFTERWARDS THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
 
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE
STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 42.7N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 46.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  29/1800Z 50.8N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0600Z 54.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1800Z 57.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1800Z 60.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1800Z 63.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 64.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH