000
WTNT44 KNHC 260832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICHARD HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND
WHAT CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WITH THE CYCLONE IS WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...THIS
COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N  92.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N  93.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.9N  94.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN