000
WTNT44 KNHC 251435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. 
ALTHOUGH RICHARD SHOULD ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18 HOURS OR SO
THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE REGENERATION.  RICHARD IS
LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
ABOUT 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 17.8N  90.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N  91.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N  92.2W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.7N  93.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.8N  94.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS