000
WTNT44 KNHC 250846
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS FALLEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE INNER-
CORE IS LOSING DEFINITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55
KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM REMAINS INLAND. ALTHOUGH RICHARD IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR. THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE CYCLONE BY 72
HOURS...THEREFORE...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
DAY AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...RICHARD...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS
OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 17.6N  89.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.1N  90.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N  91.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  92.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N  93.9W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART