000
WTNT44 KNHC 250249
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.  THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND.  RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.  MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER. 
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK
CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE 
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 17.3N  88.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.6N  89.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.2N  91.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N  92.2W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.4N  93.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG