000
WTNT44 KNHC 231458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS.  MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT
DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.   
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.9N  83.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N  89.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  94.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE