000
WTNT44 KNHC 230856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD.  DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A
40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  DURING THAT
TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE
INLAND.   AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN 
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN
THAT DIRECTION.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW
THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS
COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 15.8N  83.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N  84.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N  87.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N  89.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  91.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  94.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN