000
WTNT44 KNHC 261431
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
 
LISA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND NOW CONSISTS
PRIMARILY OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  AN 1104 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS CAPTURED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWED
A SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS.  BASED ON THIS DATA AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 25 C...AND
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA...THEREFORE...DEGENERATION TO A
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. 
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT.
LISA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS STEERED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
AGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 25.6N  29.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.4N  29.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N  30.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 28.7N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.8N  31.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 31.3N  31.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI