000
WTNT44 KNHC 240253
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
OVERALL...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUTER BANDS ON THE INCREASE.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED...
HOWEVER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LOWER THAN
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
FORECAST IN 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
HAPPENED SOONER.
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  MORE RECENTLY...
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED...WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/4.  THE
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
BY LATE TOMORROW AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LISA.
MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER CLUSTERED ON THIS
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE HWRF/GFDL ARE A LOT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE....GENERALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.1N  28.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.7N  28.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N  28.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.4N  29.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.8N  30.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  32.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  34.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  36.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE