000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.  THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.
 
THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.5N  39.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N  40.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 13.7N  41.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N  43.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 14.2N  44.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N  48.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 15.0N  52.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N  57.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH