000
WTNT44 KNHC 162032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009
 
EARLIER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAD BECOME EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION SGOF1...TYNDALL AFB TOWER C...LOCATED
ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLAUDETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR
WEAKENS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12. THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATING NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 29.5N  85.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 30.9N  86.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 32.7N  87.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  88.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS