000
WTNT44 KNHC 140232
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
 
NANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THUS
IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER.  STILL...WHAT LITTLE
CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
INDICATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT ABATED.  NANA IS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
 
NANA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/10.  A MOTION BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...DISSIPATES IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  SINCE NANA'S TRACK HINGES
ON HOW LONG IT CAN PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM
BETA ADVECTION MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 17.7N  41.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.4N  42.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 19.3N  44.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 20.4N  45.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME