000
WTNT44 KNHC 130833
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
 
NANA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN BLOB OF
DEEP CONVECTION.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2332 UTC MEASURED 30-35 KT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE
DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...SINCE THE TIME
OF THAT OVERPASS...NANA MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...I WILL MAINTAIN
THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR NOW.  THE GLOBAL MODEL'S 200 MB WIND
FORECASTS SHOWS 25-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS OR SO...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THE SHEAR TO LESSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  NANA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.  NANA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WHILE SITUATED TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW
BAM TRACK...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THAT GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 16.6N  39.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N  40.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.7N  41.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N  42.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH