000
WTNT44 KNHC 070856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
 
THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE
TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF
121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.
 
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN
HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY
OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE
LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON
THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF
IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS
DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 21.1N  72.2W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N  74.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.6W   125 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.8N  79.0W    85 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  81.1W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  84.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN