000
WTNT44 KNHC 070248
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.  ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.  UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 21.2N  70.9W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  73.0W   120 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.5W   125 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  78.0W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA