000
WTNT44 KNHC 050247
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
 
IKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE HURRICANE.  DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS
CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN 
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.  IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.
 
IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD.  IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 
THE CYCLONE.  THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY
LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 23.6N  59.5W   115 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 23.6N  61.5W   105 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.4N  64.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 22.9N  66.6W    95 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  69.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  73.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N  77.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N  80.0W   110 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN