000
WTNT44 KNHC 032346
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE.  SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS
DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. 
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD
T-NUMBERS OF 5.5.  IN FACT...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING IKE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.  

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0000Z 21.7N  53.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.6N  55.1W   110 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N  57.9W   115 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  60.4W   115 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.8N  63.1W   110 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  68.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.0W   115 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W   115 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN