000
WTNT44 KNHC 011443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS 
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD
RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT
A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A
LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.    

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 17.6N  39.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  41.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  44.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  47.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N  50.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  56.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N  62.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 23.5N  68.5W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA