000
WTNT44 KNHC 241440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST
PROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  THERE ARE NUMEROUS
OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS
DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  DESPITE WEAKENING...
DOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT  
INLAND FLOODING.
 
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 27.5N  99.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA